Final election predictions

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Mal Shot First
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Re: Final election predictions

Post by Mal Shot First »

The Swollen Goiter of God wrote:Unfortunately, if/when Trump steps down/is made to step down, the person who will step up will be Pence.
And if anything were to happen to Pence, we'd still be stuck with Mitch McConnell.
The Swollen Goiter of God wrote:A stronger running mate might have helped Clinton. I'm still a little perplexed by the choice they made on that front. It's almost like they went out of their way to find someone less charismatic than Clinton. Actually, that's probably exactly what they did.
I still can't believe that they didn't pair her up with Sanders. Maybe they tried, but Sanders didn't want to.
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Re: Final election predictions

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Is it just me or did neither Donnie or Melanie look like they really wanted to be there at the acceptance? Like an "Oh shit, now what?" look on their faces?
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Re: Final election predictions

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The Swollen Goiter of God wrote:A stronger running mate might have helped Clinton. I'm still a little perplexed by the choice they made on that front. It's almost like they went out of their way to find someone less charismatic than Clinton. Actually, that's probably exactly what they did.

I guess now we get to see if the right winds up actually liking the government it built.

One downside to this is that Clinton's failure may scare the left off of female presidential candidates for a while. It may not matter that another female candidate might have succeeded where Clinton failed. For many on the left, it will just look like women can't win presidential elections. The right, on the other hand, might give it a shot in the relatively near future.
Agreed on the running mate, and I also have to imagine he wasn't their first choice. But I get the logic of it. He's the aw-shucks, Leave it to Beaver, squeaky clean guy who was supposed to balance out concerns about her "corruption" and deliver Virginia. He did the latter, but barely.

I'd disagree about women candidates coming from the Democrats for a while. They've got a pretty deep bullpen of women with presidential credentials and nowhere near the baggage of Clinton. But I'd also disagree with calling Democrats "the left" at this point unless they pull a dramatic shift. They've been failing for over a decade now at trying to straddle the middle/middle-right in an incredibly polarized country where the hard right is loud and proud about their ideals and winning because they get their people excited and mobilized to vote for them. I cannot imagine what a bloodbath 2018 is going to be with Democrats this demoralized. My God.

I'm aware you're probably saying "left" in the American definition, of course, but I don't even think they're there anymore. Not when legalized pot and minimum wage increases passed last night in states which otherwise went to Trump. Half the country has shifted further left than the Democrats as a party, and they're going to do nothing but lose until they figure that out and respond accordingly.
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Re: Final election predictions

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So now that Palpatine is in power, when does the rebellion begin?
On December 20, 2019, the Greatest Saga Ever... concludes.
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Re: Final election predictions

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Ron Perlman just declared he is running in 2020. Hellboy for President!!
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Re: Final election predictions

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Dalty wrote:Ron Perlman just declared he is running in 2020. Hellboy for President!!
Aww yeah! We need someone to protect us from the Ogdru Jahad.

One of whom just got elected, I believe.
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Re: Final election predictions

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Thing is..... when I was young I thought 4 years was a long time. As I get older I realise it's a blink of an eye and actually, all things considered, seems like a trifling little amount of time certainly far too short for any one politician to do anything meaningful. The sun will still rise tomorrow. We'll all still probably be here. I really don't think it's the end of the world as some are declaring it. I imagine some people felt the same way after JFK. I was reminded that Reagan was called the second coming of Hitler a few times on the campaign trail.

I imagine this is why our parents always seem so much more relaxed about things than we do. They have seen it all before, and they went through it without social media whipping them all up into a fury.
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Re: Final election predictions

Post by The Swollen Goiter of God »

Here's something I said in response to a post Adam54's Facebook alter ego made:

I think a far left shift would be inadvisable--in terms of Pied-Piping people over, at least--and would end up looking something like a Bizarro World mirror image of the Tea Party right. An actual wholesale shift just left of center-left, on the other hand, might happen and would probably be a good thing.

A harder push on leftist foreign policy, environmental stances, and healthcare will probably happen. These, I'm guessing, will be the major issues. Continued social advances for women, minorities, the irreligious, and people in the LGBT community may take a back seat for a bit, since those things seem to terrify so much of the white US middle class.
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Re: Final election predictions

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It's funny, after they got kicked out in the 2010 UK election, the Labour Party decided that a shift to the Left was what they wanted/needed and they got even more beaten in 2015. Now with a completely Left, full hard Left, proper Left leader - not this weak and limp diet socialism you speak of in the US, they are even further adrift.

As predicted, the beaten are already howling that it was racism and sexism and lots of others "isms" and "ists" that are responsible for their defeat and the only possible answer is MORE of what they were selling that most people decided they didn't want to buy. I still contend that they still just don't get it. Curiously, the aforementioned hard-Left leader who is currently residing over a dying Labour Party in the U.K. has actually come closest today.

Jeremy Corbyn says people aren't as stupid and illiterate as you might think. They have legitimate concerns often brushed aside and dismissed by the ruling elite. Here is Corbyn's take on it:

"Trump’s election is an unmistakable rejection of a political establishment and an economic system that simply isn’t working for most people. It is one that has delivered escalating inequality and stagnating or falling living standards for the majority, both in the US and Britain

This is a rejection of a failed economic consensus and a governing elite that has been seen not to have listened. And the public anger that has propelled Donald Trump to office has been reflected in political upheavals across the world....

After this latest global wake up call, the need for a real alternative to a failed economic and political system could not be clearer."
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Re: Final election predictions

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Dalty wrote:"Trump’s election is an unmistakable rejection of a political establishment and an economic system that simply isn’t working for most people. It is one that has delivered escalating inequality and stagnating or falling living standards for the majority, both in the US and Britain

This is a rejection of a failed economic consensus and a governing elite that has been seen not to have listened. And the public anger that has propelled Donald Trump to office has been reflected in political upheavals across the world....

After this latest global wake up call, the need for a real alternative to a failed economic and political system could not be clearer."
The disconnect, here, is that they've voted for a man who is not only a product but the embodiment of this failed economic system that's produced so much inequality. And I doubt that Trump is about to support economic policies that are going to make his economic class less well off, an economic class that benefits most from economic inequality.
Dalty wrote:Thing is..... when I was young I thought 4 years was a long time. As I get older I realise it's a blink of an eye and actually, all things considered, seems like a trifling little amount of time certainly far too short for any one politician to do anything meaningful.
Trump might only be around for 4-8 years, but the Supreme Court judge (or judges, if any of the other judges should die or retire) he appoints will be around for a lifetime.
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Re: Final election predictions

Post by Adam54 »

Something like 53-55% of eligible voters turned out yesterday.

This means three things

1. That's fucking pathetic
2. Something like a quarter of the eligible voting population voted for Trump.
3. I feel more than comfortable labeling them the racists, bigots, xenophobes and hate mongerers of our society.
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Re: Final election predictions

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I don't get it. I honestly don't get it. I like to think I am a balanced, intelligent, open-minded person. I didn't think there was ANY way Trump would get elected. I guess I did not know a large part of our country was so dissatisfied. I just don't get it.

They say the economy is terrible. Despite many measurements showing that it is good and improving monthly, they felt Trump was a better choice to improve their lot in life. This, despite him not releasing any tax returns and the ones that were leaked show him losing nearly a BILLION dollars in a single year. Despite him being involved in multiple bankruptcies. Despite him currently being involved in a fraud trial. Despite many economists explaining his tax and fiscal plans would tremendously add to the debt and cut revenues and further proved by world wide markets tanking on the news on his election. Despite their claims that his opponent was a "Wall Street crony" and ignoring the fact that their candidate was a NYC "billionaire" who appeared to earn most of his fortune on speculation, misdirection, and just plain fabrication.

They say that they want the US to be more moral and religious. So they went and elected a thrice married philander who appears to never regularly attend services, insults the Pope, and brags about objectifying and degrading women. Not to mention the fact that on social issues such as marriage equality and LGBTQ rights, he appears to be somewhat liberal or at least not rabidly old testament against them. Of course, that's what he's got Pence for.

They say they want to get tough on immigration. This flies in the face of reality that immigration is down and going lower and deportations are up.

They say they don't want another career politician and they wanted an outsider. Do these people also say that when they take their car to the mechanic and he tells them they have a blown head gasket and he'll need to rebuild the engine? "Oh sure, you're a career mechanic. Of course you'd say we need to fix the engine. I am going to take it to my neighbor. Sure he's a mailman, but he's got some good ideas and a wrench so I am sure it will be ok".

I don't know what to be more terrified of. 4 years of Trump like he was on the campaign trail. Randomly changing policies and opinions based on a whim. Or worse, he just is in it for the ego boost, and lets the government be run by Holy Rollers like Pence and vindictive alt-right conservatives like Rudy Giuliani, Steve Bannon and Roger Ailes. I honestly feel sick to my stomach and I didn't want to get out of bed this morning.
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Re: Final election predictions

Post by Adam54 »

We're now officially in the post-facts era. Reality doesn't matter anymore. Perception does.
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Re: Final election predictions

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Word.
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Re: Final election predictions

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As a straight white upper-middle-class man, I am worried and upset about this election and what it portends for the direction of the country. Imagine how it feels to be a minority.
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Re: Final election predictions

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omicron wrote:I don't get it. I honestly don't get it. I like to think I am a balanced, intelligent, open-minded person. I didn't think there was ANY way Trump would get elected. I guess I did not know a large part of our country was so dissatisfied. I just don't get it.

They say the economy is terrible. Despite many measurements showing that it is good and improving monthly, they felt Trump was a better choice to improve their lot in life. This, despite him not releasing any tax returns and the ones that were leaked show him losing nearly a BILLION dollars in a single year. Despite him being involved in multiple bankruptcies. Despite him currently being involved in a fraud trial. Despite many economists explaining his tax and fiscal plans would tremendously add to the debt and cut revenues and further proved by world wide markets tanking on the news on his election. Despite their claims that his opponent was a "Wall Street crony" and ignoring the fact that their candidate was a NYC "billionaire" who appeared to earn most of his fortune on speculation, misdirection, and just plain fabrication.

They say that they want the US to be more moral and religious. So they went and elected a thrice married philander who appears to never regularly attend services, insults the Pope, and brags about objectifying and degrading women. Not to mention the fact that on social issues such as marriage equality and LGBTQ rights, he appears to be somewhat liberal or at least not rabidly old testament against them. Of course, that's what he's got Pence for.

They say they want to get tough on immigration. This flies in the face of reality that immigration is down and going lower and deportations are up.

They say they don't want another career politician and they wanted an outsider. Do these people also say that when they take their car to the mechanic and he tells them they have a blown head gasket and he'll need to rebuild the engine? "Oh sure, you're a career mechanic. Of course you'd say we need to fix the engine. I am going to take it to my neighbor. Sure he's a mailman, but he's got some good ideas and a wrench so I am sure it will be ok".

I don't know what to be more terrified of. 4 years of Trump like he was on the campaign trail. Randomly changing policies and opinions based on a whim. Or worse, he just is in it for the ego boost, and lets the government be run by Holy Rollers like Pence and vindictive alt-right conservatives like Rudy Giuliani, Steve Bannon and Roger Ailes. I honestly feel sick to my stomach and I didn't want to get out of bed this morning.
Extremely well said. Every word of it true. And whats really sad is that Trump voters know it too. Liberals are outraged, of course, but conservatives absorb this same information and process it completely differently. They heard it and saw it just like the rest of us but....nothing mattered in the end. It's puzzling. Just bizarre.

Trump once said he could murder someone in Manhattan and still win. Today I kinda believe him.

Oh, I got a pull-out couch for you guys if you need to crash for awhile. Like, four to eight years.
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Re: Final election predictions

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MapleMatch.

BOOM. Spacey's cashin' in!
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Re: Final election predictions

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My prediction is that Trump will be gone within two years, either impeached after a scandal/prosecution or resigned because he hates the job. Which leaves us with Pence, who is a proven woman/gay-hater. Yay.
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Re: Final election predictions

Post by The Swollen Goiter of God »

The only way I see Trump riding out the full term--in the event that he's not kicked out, I mean--is if he's truly allowed to delegate his presidential duties the way he's already indicated he would like to. I'm not sure what protections are in place to keep this from happening. To what degree are presidents required to do their job (snarky comments about excessive vacation days aside)? Is impeachment always prerequisite to getting a president out of office? Can presidents simply be fired the way most people working most jobs can be fired? If so, what are the conditions that would lead to this?

Again, if it turns out he can't delegate, and if he is forced actually to do the job, I don't see him sticking around long.
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Re: Final election predictions

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Here you see Colbert, who some might say got famous feeding into the widening of the US's political divide, pausing to reflect. There's a soberness and a quiet to it. Part of this is probably audience shock, and part of it is that Colbert's not making many jokes. (He still makes a few. He's Colbert, after all.) The producers probably also killed the audience prompter/applause light.
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Re: Final election predictions

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Re: Final election predictions

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Re: Final election predictions

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I see a 6 percentage point drop-off in votes for Clinton by millennials as compared with votes for Obama in 2012. Enjoy your Trump presidency, assholes.

Also, how the hell did Trump do better with blacks and Latinos than Romney did?
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Re: Final election predictions

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The little monsters (I say this as one towards the older end of the "Millenial" generation) stayed home because it wasn't Bernie. I fucking knew it, but that does teach an important lesson. To get them off their entitled asses, they need to have someone to vote FOR, not someone to vote AGAINST. Because if voting against Trump didn't do it, nothing will.

As far as blacks and Latinos, I haven't the slightest idea what the deal is with Latinos. That's bizarre. But I kind of get it with blacks. His going to Detroit a month or so ago and pitching them, as a political outsider, the argument of "your lives suck right now. What do you possibly have to lose by trying me out?" was a stroke of genius by Kellyann Conway.

It won't ever work again for him, of course, and will bite him in the ass royally if things when things are so much worse by 2020. But in the moment we're in now? Makes sense to me.
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Re: Final election predictions

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Adam54 wrote:As far as blacks and Latinos, I haven't the slightest idea what the deal is with Latinos. That's bizarre.
It might be the Cubans in Florida because they were not happy with Obama's relaxation of foreign policy toward Cuba. Trump's anti-immigration stance would also align with Marco Rubio's views, which may represent the views of other Cuban-Americans.
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