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Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:31 pm
by Adam54
High turnout has to be a good sign for Remain, yes?

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:32 pm
by Dalty
Gibraltar looking like first to declare in 15 mins. 85% turnout. 80%+ in favour of Remain according to rumours.

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:33 pm
by Adam54
EIGHTY FIVE PERCENT TURNOUT?!?!!?!

That's like three elections combined for us!

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:33 pm
by Dalty
Adam54 wrote:High turnout has to be a good sign for Remain, yes?
So they say, but I struggle to see how motivated people ever will be for the status quo.

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:33 pm
by Adam54
Don't underestimate the determination of college kids being threatened with change.

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:34 pm
by Dalty
I thought they liked change? They all think they are "progressive" ?

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:36 pm
by Dalty
Gibraltar is in....

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:37 pm
by Dalty
19,322 for remain
823 for leave

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:37 pm
by Adam54
Holy fuck.

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:37 pm
by Dalty
84% turnout.

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:38 pm
by Adam54
Dalty wrote:I thought they liked change? They all think they are "progressive" ?
Well, generally I suppose. They also don't give two shits about brown or black people being brown or black, so there's that.

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:39 pm
by Adam54
That's 96% for remain! What kind of area is Gibraltar?

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:41 pm
by Dalty
Gibraltar is a tiny peninsula at the entrance to the Mediterranean which Spain constantly threatens and wants back. They want to stay part of the U.K. In Gibraltar and are quite militant about standing up to Spain.

Spain frequently closes the border to cause trouble and sends Spanish naval vessels into Gibraltan waters to flex muscles.

They strongly feel that remaining part of the EU protects them from Spain because it stops the Spanish getting more aggressive.

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:42 pm
by Dalty
Also, they are a tax haven at the heart of the EU like Monaco.

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:45 pm
by Dalty
Rumours coming in from Sunderland (North Eastern city and region) that is traditionally the first to report after an election.

Expected to be Eurosceptic and vote very marginally for "Leave".

However rumours are 60%ish for "Leave" - which is a massive cat amongst pigeons if true and if carried across the UK skews the suspected "Remain" result in the wrong direction for them.

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:46 pm
by Dalty
Newcastle rumours now - expected to be around 60% for "Remain" but hearing only very marginal win for "Remain"

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 4:47 pm
by Dalty
Newcastle is the region next door to Sunderland. Where my family are from, incidentally.

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 5:00 pm
by Dalty
Newcastle vote coming in now....

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 5:03 pm
by Dalty
Holy shit!

Newcastle was supposed to be a home run for "Remain" but they only got 50.7% to win.

49.3% voted "Leave" - it was supposed to be 60%ish for "Remain". That's no victory for "Remain" - it's squeaky bum time!

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 5:16 pm
by Dalty
First couple of Scottish results in, both for "Remain". One was the Orkney Islands which is like some of the Florida Keys voting.

The other was for a bigger region and still not as high for "Remain" as expected. They were expected to remain, but the margin is far tighter than any analyst said.

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 5:16 pm
by Dalty
And the Scots turnout is looking lower than expected and lower than the national average.

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 5:17 pm
by Dalty
Sunderland went "Leave" by 61%

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 5:25 pm
by Dalty
Leave 3,207 votes in the lead. Early days.

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 5:44 pm
by Dalty
Rumours from Warwickshire and Hartlepool looking at nearly 70% for Leave. Expected that Leave would win but the margin is again surprising people.

Re: Brexit

Posted: June 23rd, 2016, 5:58 pm
by Dalty
Last two results went for Leave - but both as expected by roughly the proportions expected.